What Would A Proof of Open Booking Look Like?

One can spend considerable time and energy developing specific and detailed reviews of flawed theories and business proposals. Although appreciative comments and note are often the result, it’s important to recognize that this isn’t how business strategies should be developed.

The burden of proof rests with the proponents of new strategies and theories to use adequate and appropriate reasoning, and specific proofs to show that these are valid–not with everyone else to show why they are not.

Open Booking, as presently announced, is an ill-conceived business strategy that rests upon faulty logic, inadequate data, poor research, and a suspension of belief in how the real world operates. Its proponents have, or should have, certain obligations to correct these errors and show how Open Booking then remains a valid business premise.

Absent a much improved business case, the travel community is justified in rejecting Open Booking’s imaginary benefits without further argument. The disinclination of others to spend time refuting unsupported theories gives them no credence whatever.

Here’s a concise outline of how Open Booking must be proven. It’s not unrealistic and doesn’t assume more that a correct application of available evidence.

I’ve also attached a “conclusion” as to how likely we are to ever see any of these points addressed.

1)    Assume the Burden of Proof

Advocates of any theory, business or otherwise, carry the burden of proof which requires them to adequate demonstrate why their ideas are valid.

Statements about Open Booking such as “travelers are booking directly with suppliers and often times spending less money than if they go through a managed program,” or “there have been studies that have validated this but unfortunately, the status quo has swept them under the rug” are irrelevant commentary and establish nothing.
When you make such claims, it’s your job to substantiate them. Produce your evidence or abandon your claims.

Conclusion: The Burden of Proof is troublesome and inconvenient. It’s much more fun to make random, unsupported claims and suggest that people who disbelieve you should know better. The logical basis for Open Booking is so shaky that were unlikely to see a rush to defend it with more that opinion and speculation.

2)    Clearly and Comprehensively State the Proposition

Any business theory requires a detailed, comprehensive statement of what it is and how its proponents expect it to work. For Open Booking, that means more than the vague statements about how everyone is doing it so the result is therefore inevitable. The business proposition needs to be positively defended in order to be valid. Simply because flaws can be identified in the travel management process does nothing to advance the cause of Open Booking–there are other equally choices available.

The case for Open Booking also needs to consider business operations in the real world in detail and discuss how Open Booking affects each of them. A few short PowerPoint presentations do little to advance this discussion.

Conclusion: Building a correct business case is a lot of work, and Open Booking is a moving target that seems to evolve along a new line as soon as someone points out its shortcomings. It’s unlikely that anyone will expend the effort to improve this picture.

3)    Define Specific, Unambiguous Proofs That Your Assertions Are Correct

Once you’ve explained the business case for Open Booking, show us the clear proof-points that demonstrate the theory is valid and worth the effort. Not travelers are booking directly with suppliers and often times spending less money than if they go through a managed program” but how much, how often, under what conditions, and to what degree does this have to be so to offset costs and business risks?

Conclusion: If Open Booking could be substantiated in this way, someone would have tried to do so by now. The fact that proofs and evidence are abandoned in favor of opinion and anecdote is itself a demonstration of Open Booking’s failure.

4)    Use Objective, Comprehensive, Accurate, and Scientifically Correct Data

Forget self-selected surveys, tiny samples, biased questions, and the general lack of controls that infests almost all travel industry research. Produce data that can be defended, use it to establish your proofs, and then your Open Booking business proposition might have some validity.

Conclusion: Almost all travel research is useless and contrived to establish the preconceptions its authors want to perpetuate. This is unlikely to change anytime soon. As best (and this is conceding a great deal) the data in support of Open Booking are ambiguous.

Open Booking’s proofs and research should be straightforward and, if correct, should silence critics when accompanies by a comprehensive business proposition. It’s time this evidence is forthcoming.

5)    Comprehensively Describe How You Did Your Research

What precisely was your sampling methodology? How are your conclusions sustained by the raw data? What is an alternate interpretation of the data and how do you answer that interpretation? What would researchers have to do to replicate your research? Who sponsored your research and what are their and your predispositions?

Conclusion: Real research is transparent, fully explained and disclosed, and replicable. Spurious research sustains one-time conclusions or hides behind a proprietary cloak. This type of transparency and disclosure is very rare in the travel industry and non-existent as concerns Open Booking.

6)    State What You Cannot Yet Prove and How This Affects Your Conclusions

Scientific research acknowledges its shortcomings and identifies what cannot yet be proven as well as what can. It also admits areas where future evidence might disprove the theory. The quality of your interpretation of the evidence in support of your claims is as important as what that evidence specifically shows.

Open Booking lacks a real statement of its comprehensive business case, real proof-points that are offered to establish its validity, scientific evidence sufficient to establish the vague claims made in behalf of it, and a rational analysis of its very real deficiencies.

Conclusion: Open Booking’s proponents are no more likely to improve their process or develop their evidence in this area than they are in any other. Remember, if you are an advocate of Open Booking, you have the responsibility to develop and present your adequate evidence before anyone is obliged to give your ideas credence.

It’s not up to me or anyone else to disprove Open Booking–the burden rests with you. The six areas discussed here should be a minimum expectation.

The Productivity Pit

This analysis appeared September 17, 2013 in Cornerstone Information System’s “Insight & Opinion” section.


Innovation in the travel industry is much more difficult than you may imagine. Not only is there a famine of genuinely innovative ideas and programs but gaining acceptance for them can be close to impossible.

Nowhere is that more clearly in evidence than through industry productivity. There are some variances depending upon the activities being measured, but in general industry productivity hasn’t moved significantly in many years–except perhaps in the wrong direction.

It’s tempting to think that today’s online-enabled world must represent productivity at its best. For individuals and businesses, everyone has to have a smart phone, a tablet, and usually also a PC–all online and just waiting to make them more productive.

Personal computing, in whatever form, has caused us to confuse “busy work” with meaningful work. Finding the latest and greatest applications for tablets and phones, or innovative ways to make things happen on hand-held devices that were never designed for them are examples of nonproductive tasks we tolerate because our gear has to work the way everyone says it should.

We also simply must be “online and mobile” in order to get anything done. Highly paid people waste their own time with this high-tech tinkering instead of doing something useful.

The industry is so suffocated by information that people have started accepting irrational actions as normal.  According to some reports, it’s “usual” for travelers to consult 20 or more different web sites prior to making a reservation.

When you recognize that many of those sites simply take information from other sites and repackage it, one can only wonder what people are thinking.

I believe productivity in most areas of travel distribution hasn’t shown a real increase for at least 10 years, and that developments on the commercial horizon that promise change are indeed rare.

New Inventions, and Other Fallacies

“The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible.”

 

– Bertrand Russell, British author, mathematician, & philosopher (1872-1970)

I was head of technology for one of the country’s largest travel management companies for years. More than once I remarked to my colleagues, who were worried about competitors copying our technology, that most everyone will ignore anything truly useful that we might develop.

There are serious problems with expecting technology to transform industry productivity again, as has happened twice in the history of travel automation. Almost everyone is so absorbed by the mythology of surrounding popular devices and the online world that few developers really know what productivity enhancements to build.

The answers are not obvious, little help from the user community has been forthcoming, development is expensive and the risk of failure is great.

Equally as important is the unrealistic pricing and user expectations that are pervasive in travel technology.  Where developers cannot reasonably expect real financial returns and sensible ongoing support commitments, it is difficult to find the basis for worthwhile new projects.

There is no alternative, however to diligently seeking productivity improvement.  Even very modest increases can yield enormous financial benefit. Developing automation solutions that are effective, sustainable, and that can truly be used to increase basic productivity without requiring a higher overall skill level should be a standard by which travel technology is measured.

Present travel technology gadgets usually focus upon correcting the deficiencies of other systems.  Reengineering, used in the sense of defining new and better methods rather than simply staff reductions, has largely bypassed travel distribution.

The industry usually looks at illusionary productivity standards and hence achieves illusionary results–what I refer to as digging and then falling into a productivity pit.

Productivity Through Compromise

If you diminish overall workloads you create the impression of being more productive.  Such tactics, as an example, are tried by those who eliminate quality control steps for certain segments of their business.

Productivity Through Redirection

The travel industry has been training itself to believe that the most efficient way to make reservations is for managers and executives to use what are often inferior tools to do the job themselves–and become the company’s highest-paid, bad travel agents. People and systems do not become more productive simply because direct service charges are lowered and work distributed over a larger and more expensive labor pool.

Productivity through Weird Science

So-called artificial intelligence, knowledge-based systems, or automated booking systems occasionally pop-up as productivity solutions.

Aside from the fact that the technology most developers employ is of questionable worth, such projects can only be classed with traditional tools that try to correct older system deficiencies–none as yet has tried to reengineer the basic elements of travel agency inefficiency.

This reengineering looks like:

  1. Tools that assist in getting work right the first time or that transfer meaningful functions wholly to automated systems.
  2. Delivering true customer service (defined as the ability to organize product presentation so as to give people what they really want to buy).
  3. Organizing decision support so that knowledge relating to customer service is equally and readily accessible to experienced and inexperienced operators and can empower correct business choices.

Finding and implementing productivity solutions isn’t easy, but they may mean the difference between survival and failure–where competition promises even tighter margins and increased costs.

 

Corporate Mobile Travel Strategy

This analysis appeared June 14, 2013 in Cornerstone Information System’s “Insight & Opinion” section.


By now you’ve been thoroughly exposed to the idea that mobile applications (affectionately termed “apps”) are an essential part of travel technology. There’s no denying that mobile applications are popular, but understanding why and to what extent is more difficult.

Equally challenging is interpreting the specific implications for your business.

Business Case

Perhaps you’re as tired as I am of being told you “need” a mobile travel strategy, and it would be interesting to first understand what you could accomplish.

Proponents usually start building their case with surveys and research which suggest businesses without mobile capabilities risk being “overwhelmed” by competitors, as the number of people initiating travel transactions on mobile devices expands to eclipse all other methods.

This argument runs aground somewhat because almost all this research isn’t very good. Briefly, almost all popular industry researchers don’t disclose their financial backers and biases, or their research methods, and their products aren’t scientifically designed or operated.

We’re left to conclude that, from among the hundreds of millions of smartphones and tablets, consumers simply must be looking for travel products, even if specific numbers can’t be verified.

Competition among the literally millions of app developers is intense–for room on the device and consumer attention if nothing else. Of the dozens of apps on your device, how many do you really use?

Five or six is an oft-quoted number.

I’m not arguing against mobility or applications, just pointing out that the barriers to successful entry are significant, and assuming these are unimportant because the market must be huge doesn’t make it so, or drive travelers to use a mobile app simply because you offer it.

In the simplest terms, people probably use mobile applications for some of the following reasons:

  • Having a computer with you everywhere you go is certainly handy.
  • Most people didn’t do that much with their PCs anyway–the transition to mobile is fairly straightforward.
  • The apps can look and behave better than on a PC, because building tools in a web browser was never a really great idea.
  • Most travel vendors have made communicating with them so difficult and unpleasant that the simplest, handiest form of electronic access looks very attractive.

As you start thinking about a mobile strategy, consider carefully the real reasons you believe travelers will support it.

The Best Tool Is the One That Works

Corporate travel buyers are often presented a surprisingly sparse list of mobile application choices. Much of what is on offer doesn’t do much or work very well.

Consumers have always had a high tolerance for flawed travel technology–a frequent reaction being that, if it works at all, it works wonderfully. The basis for a successful mobile strategy might be to insist on delivering real value and performance to the customer.

Determine what the service and business needs of your travelers are, then look for products that can approximate those requirements with an acceptable level of change to your operation.

For example, if you’ve determined that travelers should be able to request, change, and reconcile their trips from a mobile device, be certain that the tools you select allow that to happen with very few failures, limited training, modest traveler effort, and acceptable recourse when things go wrong.

These sound like “everybody does that” goals, but in practice they are difficult. Don’t be coaxed into accepting marginal products simply because they’re mobile.

It appropriate to set more modest goals that support your overall service strategy and that you can successfully reach.

The Best Tool Is No Tool

The travel industry is often anxious to build solutions to problems that shouldn’t be solved. No tool, mobile or otherwise, can change the fact that most “technology problems” are really unresolved management problems.

Often your business goals are better supported by altering procedures and requirements to make problems go away, as opposed to looking for the latest apps that might solve them.

The distance between mobile applications and other computer-based tools isn’t very great, and no computer ever compensated for poor procedures and policies, unrealistic expectations, traveler misbehavior, or a failure to manage.

Mobility is best viewed not as the centerpiece, but rather as an intelligent and convenient enabler for your comprehensive product, service, and travel strategy.

 

Rethinking Data

This analysis appeared April 30, 2013 in Cornerstone Information System’s “Insight & Opinion” section


Data and their application have been a travel industry fixation since ADS was discovered over 30 years ago. When it became practical to collect the specifics of what travel customers were buying, suddenly it was an essential management task, effective competition hinged on being the best data manipulator, and travel managers were left to wonder what they should do with the piles of reports TMCs were cheerfully offering.

Most people are still wondering. Making better decisions that are enabled by travel data is a goal industry experts, acknowledge, respect, desire to achieve, and find surprisingly elusive.

A correct and productive data strategy for the travel industry is not difficult to identify, but its successful implementation requires discarding several cherished ideas.

Big Data…Big Deal

Some years ago, the CEO of a major national TMC (herein nameless) was fond of telling industry groups that it once “came to me in a flash of light that I was really in the information business.”

As I worked for a major competitor, I was also fond of telling the same story–with full attribution to its author. I added that perhaps his next corporate account proposal would be successful if he offered just reports…and no tickets.

Travel is not an information business; it is a service business and many of the most indefensible and irrational travel products were conceived when people lost sight of that fact. Where data support the delivery of effective and affordable customer service, analysis has a role.

Analysis for its own sake has few uses and is something for which most travel managers have a difficult time writing a check.

The current hot topic in reporting circles is “big data,” (ten years ago it was “data warehousing”). Apart from the fact that big data means lots of data from multiple sources, most people are challenged to explain its business rationale.

Under most conditions, “big data” is a term without meaning in the travel industry. Effective managers in all sectors of the industry need realistic business analysis goals, without regard to the size or complexity of a data set. Collecting the most data sounds highly scientific to most people and from that they incorrectly infer that the exercise must be valuable and that ill-defined real-world applications are justified.

Big data might have a role in such predictions as what travelers will buy, but even there the variables are so complex as to confound all but the most determined and expert analysts.

Where’s Your Talent?

Decision support tools for the travel industry have proven difficult to build and maintain, and the few companies that produce truly good ones are highly underrated for the value they deliver. A successful decision support tool enables better, more informed business decisions that cannot necessarily be anticipated when the system and the databases that sustain it are conceived.

As essential to such a system’s success as the skill with which it was designed is the insight it enables for its human operator. Systems people are prone to highlight data, reports, and analysis while overlooking the fact that a skillful, insightful, talented operator is what moves decision support into action.

The system’s role is to make that talent productive.

Without recognizing the role and composition of decision support, travel data analysts are likely to dive down any number of rabbit holes looking for new projects. One good example is the current fascination with data analysis projects that have subjective outcomes.

Systems that contrive to use data for calculating such things as traveler dissatisfaction with policy are ill-conceived in my view. A “dissatisfaction” report cannot escape the subjective and occasionally irrational nature of what it attempt to measure, a problem which is compounded by dozens of other variables that combine to make the result about as meaningless as arguing that green is better than blue.

Successful corporate travel data analysis is built upon clear business goals, and supported by decision support tools that empower insight and better conclusions in their human users.

They recognize the elegance found in simplicity and employ the shortest, most efficient way to deliver their results, and the travel managers using them do well to require specific answers from them to their real-world problems.